NCSG Researchers say planning for uncertainties key to a more thriving state
The Millennial generation has very a specific agenda regarding how they want to work; one thing it doesn't involve is a commute. The largest generation since the Baby Boomers, Millennials are causing private and public sector business to re-think exactly how—and where—they do business. Examples of company "campuses," generous telecommuting policies and relocating office space to transit hubs are trending nationwide in a race to attract young, qualified workers.
The "millennial factor" is one of several large-scale phenomena currently being studied by the National Center for Smart Growth in order to develop a sustainable development strategy for the Baltimore-Washington area. The Plan for Regional Sustainability Tomorrow, or PRESTO, will help determine where industry and business hubs would thrive, if there will be the housing, infrastructure and transportation inventory to support it, and, ultimately, how to create a sustainable Maryland by the year 2040.
The on-going project, supported by a grant from the Town Creek Foundation, and highlighted in The Guardian this month, focuses on identifying the key factors or “driving forces” that will shape the Baltimore-Washington region, using the center’s suite of highly developed data and analytic tools to develop baseline scenarios, as well as alternative, most sustainable scenarios.
While evaluating historical data and projected trends in areas like population growth, land use and air emissions are key to projecting the future of the state, so is examining certain assumptions, from economic factors like federal job growth to behavioral assumptions—like Millennial preferences. The uncertainty of how these assumptions play out in future years, researchers found, can have drastic implications on a sustainable development strategy.
“The degree of uncertainty facing the region has been eye-opening,” said Daniel Engleberg, a researcher on the project. “These phenomena can really push the state in a variety of directions.”
Unlike traditional regional plans, which focus on a desired result and then develop a plan to get there, the approach taken by PRESTO researchers stresses the importance of accounting for these uncertain conditions that lawmakers may encounter along the way. A good example of this, explains Daniel, is the autonomous vehicle—otherwise known as the self-driving car. Once relegated to the same sci-fi category as jet packs, the self-driving car, says Daniel, is an impending reality.
“Autonomous vehicles weren’t initially on our radar, but they are a real possibility in the future, and have the ability to significantly impact behavior and trends. Take rush hour for example; will people have a problem sitting in a car for two hours if they can work or watch TV instead of driving? That could greatly effect policy decisions for funding infrastructure, transit, as well as stretch the boundaries of how far from metropolitan areas people are willing to live.”
The four baseline scenarios the group has developed so far are radically different, allowing researchers to plug in existing or potential policy to see how they interact, what works and what sort of future they create. And, while the idea of PRESTO is not to predict which future will come true, what it hopes to do is guide policymakers in how they prepare. It also sets the stage for researchers to now formulate alternative, more sustainable scenarios for the region, which includes identifying and promoting policy decisions that could boost sustainable practice.
“It’s sort of like going on a sailing trip,” explains Daniel. “You know where you want to go and know the path, but don't know the conditions or what’s waiting on the wind. We need to be prepared for what could happen along the way. And the choices we make can make a real difference in the region.”